Private home prices edge up 0.5% q-o-q in 3Q2023: URA flash estimates

Private home prices increased by 0.5% q-o-q in the third quarter of 2023, according to flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). This marks a rebound from the 0.2% decline registered in the second quarter, but nonetheless, reflects a significant slowed growth momentum compared to the average quarterly price increase of 2.1% recorded in the previous year.

Activity in the private residential market was more muted in August and September due to the lunar seventh month, according to Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty. Private residential sale transaction volume fell 15% q-o-q to 4,569 transactions in 3Q2023 – a 26% decrease from the same period the previous year.

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Non-landed properties drove the slight increase in prices, with a 2.1% q-o-q rise in prices in 3Q2023, compared to 0.6% decrease in the previous quarter. Homes in the Outside Central Region (OCR) lead the way, with prices growing 5.1% q-o-q, followed by the Rest of Central Region (RCR), where prices increased 2.3%.

In contrast, condo prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) fell 2.6% q-o-q, which follows a decline of 0.1% registered in the previous quarter. The segment continues to be weighed down by the additional buyer’s stamp duty imposed on investors and foreigners, as well as by a recent high-profile money-laundering investigation.

Landed housing prices also moderated in 3Q2023, with a 4.9% q-o-q slide – a reversal from the 1.1% increase recorded in the second quarter. This breaks an eight-quarter streak of landed housing price growth, observed Wong Xian Yang, head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia at Cushman & Wakefield.

Overall, Wong believes the private residential market to remain resilient, despite heightened interest rates and cooling measures. Chia Siew Chuin, head of residential research, research and consultancy at JLL, concurs, noting that local demand for private housing should stay healthy.

However, both parties recognize that buyers will remain price-sensitive amid a weaker economic environment and higher interest rates. JLL anticipates private home prices to stay relatively stable over the next few quarters, with an overall growth prediction of 3.6% for the first three quarters of 2023. In the meantime, Cushman & Wakefield is maintaining its full-year price growth forecast of 2% to 5%.